1 July 2025,03:03
Chart The Market
1 July 2025, 03:03
USDJPY, H4:
USD/JPY continues to retreat, falling below 144.30 and testing a key support band around 143.80. The pair has now extended its short-term downtrend, reversing from the June high near 148.10. The move follows a sustained rejection from multi-week resistance and now threatens to erase much of June’s gains.
Technically, the momentum picture remains bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped to 38, struggling to reclaim the 50 mark after several failed bounce attempts. This underscores the persistent downward pressure, with recent rebounds lacking follow-through. Unless the RSI stabilizes and rises decisively, downside risks remain elevated.
The MACD paints a similar picture. Although the histogram shows signs of deceleration, the MACD line remains firmly below the signal line. There are no imminent signs of a bullish crossover, and momentum remains tilted to the downside. The overall structure suggests that bears still hold control of the short-term trend.
From a price action perspective, 142.66 stands as the next major support to watch. A break below this level could open the door toward 141.70. On the upside, only a firm move back above 144.30 would signal early signs of stabilization. Until then, the technical backdrop favors continued weakness.
Resistance Levels: 144.30, 145.10
Support Levels: 142.66, 141.70
GBPUSD, H4
The British pound has climbed steadily against the U.S. dollar in recent sessions, with GBP/USD now trading near the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3730 — a critical zone that marks the upper echelon of the pair’s recent recovery rally. This move follows a well-structured bounce off the 1.3388 low, where the 0.0 Fib level anchored a sharp reversal, triggering a near-unbroken sequence of higher closes and decisively clearing intermediate resistance levels at the 0.382 (1.3554) and 0.618 (1.3655) retracements.
This surge represents more than just a technical retracement — it hints at underlying institutional strength as buyers step in with conviction. Volume analysis supports the move, with sustained green bars accompanying each bullish leg, indicating broad participation in the rally.
However, technical undercurrents suggest caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled from overbought territory, now hovering near 60 after peaking above 70 — a subtle warning that upside momentum may be losing steam. Meanwhile, the MACD, which had previously shown a strong bullish crossover, is flattening, and its histogram has turned slightly negative. Although no definitive bearish cross has formed yet, the narrowing gap between the MACD and signal line raises the risk of a potential reversal signal forming in the sessions ahead.
This creates a critical inflection zone for GBP/USD: while price remains above key Fibonacci support levels — particularly the 0.618 zone at 1.3655 — the divergence between price and momentum could lead to either a consolidation phase or a pullback toward lower retracement levels. A decisive breakout above 1.3730 would open the path to challenge the recent swing high near 1.3820. Conversely, failure to hold current gains may drive the pair back toward the 0.5 Fib at 1.3604 or deeper toward 1.3554.
In sum, GBP/USD’s recent rally showcases bullish structural integrity, but emerging cracks in momentum demand respect. Traders should watch for confirmation from MACD histograms and RSI behavior — either a resumption above 62 or a retreat below 50 — to gauge whether the current rally still has legs or is ripe for correction.
Resistance Levels: 1.3820, 1.3940
Support Levels: 1.3730, 1.3655
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